Impact of GST on Indian economy
The introduction of Goods and Service Tax (GST) in India is now on the horizon. The Constitution Amendment Bill to replace existing multiple indirect taxes by uniform GST across India is likely to be taken up for voting in Rajya Sabha during this week. Lok Sabha has already passed this Bill.
The current indirect tax structure is major impediment in India’s economic growth and competitiveness. Tax barriers in the form of CST, entry tax and restricted input tax credit have fragmented the Indian market. Cascading effects of taxes on cost make indigenous manufacture less attractive. Complex multiple taxes increase cost of compliance. In this scenario, the introduction of GST is considered crucial for economic growth. GST will have quite a favourable impact on Indian economy. Some sectors will have more favourable impact compared to others under the proposed GST.
Removal of tax barriers on introduction of uniform GST across the country with seamless credit, will make India a common market leading to economy of scale in production and efficiency in supply chain. It will expand trade and commerce. GST will have favourable impact on organised logistic industry and modernised warehousing.
GST will remove cascading effect of taxes imbedded in cost of production of goods and services and will provide seamless credit throughout value chain. This will significantly reduce cost of indigenous goods and will promote ‘Make in India’. The sectors which have long value chain from basic goods to final consumption stage with operation spread in multiple states such as FMCG, pharma, consumer durables, automobiles and engineering goods will be the major beneficiaries of GST.
GST will facilitate ease of doing business in India. Integration of existing multiple taxes into single GST will significantly reduce cost of tax compliance and transaction cost.
Stable, transparent and predictable tax regime will encourage local and foreign investment in India creating significant job opportunities.
Electronic processing of tax returns, refunds and tax payments through ‘GSTNET’ without human intervention, will reduce corruption and tax evasion. Built-in check on business transactions through seamless credit and return processing will reduce scope for black money generation leading to productive use of capital.
Significant reduction in product and area-based exemptions under GST will widen the tax base with a consequent reduction in revenue neutral rate. This will enable the government to keep GST rates lower which may have favourable impact on prices of goods in the medium term. The tax rate for services however may go up by 2 to 3% from the present level of 15%. The adverse impact of rate increase on services will be partially neutralised by availability of seamless input tax credit.
GST will eliminate the scope of double taxation in certain sectors due to tax dispute on whether a particular transaction is for supply of goods or provision of service such as licensing of intellectual properties like patents and copyrights, software, e-commerce and leasing.
While the GST will simplify tax structure, it will increase the burden of procedural and documentary compliance. Number of returns will increase significantly so also the extent of information. For instance, a real estate developer or contractor will have to file 61 returns in a year compared to 24 returns at present. Similarly a taxable person providing services from several states will have to take registration and file return in all such states. Currently a single centralised registration is required in such cases.
GST will also have impact on cash flow and working capital. Cash flow and working capital of business organisations which maintain high inventory of goods in different states will be adversely affected as they will have to pay GST at full rate on stock transfer from one state to another. Currently CST/VAT is payable on sale and not stock transfers.
It is also pertinent to note that all indirect taxes will not be subsumed in GST. Electricity duty, stamp duty, excise duty and VAT on alcoholic beverages, petroleum products like crude, natural gas, ETF, petrol and diesel will not be subsumed in GST on its introduction. These taxes will form part of the cost of these goods when used as inputs in downstream products. Hence those sectors where these goods form significant input cost such as plastics and polymers, fertilisers, metals, telecom, air transport, real estate will not get full benefit of GST.
Major beneficiary of GST would be sectors like FMCG, Pharma, Consumer Durables and Automobiles and warehousing and logistic industry.
High inflationary impact would be on telecom, banking and financial services, air and road transport, construction and development of real estate,
While GST is eagerly awaited by the industry, the legal process to implement GST in India is quite long and complex. After the Constitution Amendment Bill is passed by the Parliament with two-thirds majority, it will have to be passed by at least 15 states. There after GST council has to be constituted which will recommend model GST law and GST rates. On such recommendation, GST Act and Rules have to be enacted by the Parliament and each state assembly. Then implementation date has to be notified. It is therefore quite important that the Constitution Amendment Bill is passed in the current Monsson Session if GST is to be implemented during the tenure of present Parliament which ends during 2019.